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Drone Taxi Market Predicted to Grow to More than $800 Million in the next 8 years. Where Will They Fly?

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Joby Aviation air taxi drone taxi market
Joby Aviation aircraft

Update July 23, 2021: Joby Aviation, mentioned below, reached out to clarify that their aircraft are not “drone taxis” but manned by type-rated pilots. 

A new report “Drone Taxi Market by Range (Intercity, Intracity), Propulsion (Fully Electric, Hybrid, Electric Hydrogen), Autonomy (Fully Autonomous, Remotely Piloted), Passenger Capacity (Up to 2, 3 to 5, More than 5), System, End Use & Region – Global Forecast to 2030“, predicts that the market will grow from an estimated USD 74 million in 2025 to reach USD 860 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 63.0% during the forecast period. “The growth of the Drone Taxi market is majorly attributed to the rapid increase in urban demographics and increasing demand of eVTOLs for intracity transportation in various countries,” says the report summary.

The report identifies the key players: Boeing and Joby Aviation in the U.S., Airbus in the Netherlands, Lilium and Volocopter in Germany, and Ehang in China.   The key players are all companies with “strong distribution networks across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and Latin America,” points out the forecast.  (Note: Joby Aviation reached out to clarify that their aircraft are not “drone taxis” but manned by type-rated pilots. In fact, many of the aircraft listed above are designed to hold pilots, at least in initial implementation phases.)
Ride Sharing Companies and the Drone Taxi Market
The report predicts that ride sharing companies, like Uber, will have a large share in the Drone Taxi Market during the forecast period.  “This growth is attributed to congested cities and need for faster transport with defined travel routes to enable reaching from one destination to another. … ride sharing companies are expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period owing to a large number of air taxi operators and the expected increase in the adoption of ride sharing taxis post 2025,” says the report.  Certainly, business deals reflet this prediction.  Uber Elevate, Uber’s urban air mobility division, joined forces with Joby Aviation last year: around the world, transportation systems are looking to integrate aviation solutions.
Where  – and When – Will Drone Taxis Fly?
The need is clear – and the vehicles are there: but actual service is not going to happen everywhere before 2030.  Although the report predicts that North America will grow at the highest rate during the forecast period, that doesn’t mean we’ll see drone taxi service in the next 8 years.  What it does mean is that large industry players and international regulatory bodies are investing heavily in the drone taxi market.

North America is forecasted to grow at the highest CAGR during the period from 2025-2030. The market growth in this region can be attributed to strategic partnerships and funding related to the use of drone taxis by concerned authorities in North American countries. For instance, in January 2020, Joby Aviation entered into a strategic partnership with Toyota and Uber. Joby Aviation plans to go public in a reverse merger with Reinvent Technology Partners, a USD 690 million publicly listed blank check company. Air taxis are likely to witness heightened demand for urban transportation in this region.

The U.S. is moving towards urban air mobility.  NASA’s National Campaign is researching UAM issues: Unmanned Traffic Management sytems are being developed to accommodate advanced air mobility (AAM) vehicles.  Actual service, however, may appear in other markets first.  China is supporting Ehang’s efforts by implementing projects from passenger drone tourism to emergency services; Japan has vowed to implement AAM by 2023; and Korea is demonstrating drone taxis across the country.

While it may be some time before drone taxis come to cities in the U.S., the infrastructure and investment are well underway to making it happen – someday.

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