The FAA’s Aerospace Forecast is Out: and There are a Few Surprises in the Drone Data

The FAA has released their annual aerospace forecast – and the drone industry figures are both impressive and surprising.  We’ll dive into different areas of the forecasts in future articles: in this one, we’re looking at the numbers.   DRONELIFE has reported on FAA Aerospace Forecasts since 2016: and a look back gives us perspective on how predictions change and how they do – or don’t – reflect reality.

What They Thought Would Happen

The annual forecast makes predictions of growth and fleet size: this year the forecast covers 2019 – 2039, but predictions tend to narrow to a 5 year period.  Unmanned aircraft have now been included in the forecast for several years, and a look back at some of the previous predictions provides an interesting backdrop to this year’s data.

The FAA has clearly honed its methodology and used their experience in the sector to develop more precise forecasts.  The 2016 forecast predicted massive growth: but as we reported in 2017, the following year’s forecast got more realistic:

The FAA’s numbers last year showed predictions of commercial drone sales rising to 2.7 million units by 2020.  By comparison, this year’s baseline forecast is for a fleet of .327 million units by 2020.  The more than 2 million unit drop, explains FAA Deputy Division Manager Michael Lukacs, is partly due to a change in model.  While last year’s numbers represented unit sales, this year’s numbers predict a data point more important to regulators: the number of drones actually in operation.  It’s a subtle difference, but a significant one.  Drone tech is changing so rapidly that operators frequently upgrade equipment, so sales are not necessarily equivalent to fleet numbers.

Last year, the FAA predicted solid growth for the commercial drone industry but still struggled to get a handle on the commercial sector.

About the commercial “non-model” space, FAA says: “It is very dynamic and appears to be at an early stage of growth. Unlike the model sector, we anticipate that the growth rate in this sector will continue to accelerate over the next few years.”   In actual fleet estimates, the FAA uses a base number but acknowledges that as new applications open, the rate could go much higher.

At the time of last year’s forecast, the FAA predicted growth of 40% in the commercial drone sector.

What Actually Happened

For those who have been paying attention, growth in the sector is no surprise.  What is surprising, however, is the pace of growth and the significant differences between the recreational and commercial UAS sectors.

The recreational drone industry in the US is slowing down.   With 900,000 registered recreational pilots and an estimated fleet of about 1.25 million in the U.S., recreational flyers make up a significant community.  It’s a sector, however, that the FAA predicts will “saturate” soon:

What Happens Next?

This year’s predictions about the drone industry reflect the experience gained from another year of data and regulations – but take into account the naturally fluid nature of a new sector.  In any case, the FAA Aerospace Forecast is optimistic for the commercial drone industry.

Hardware continues to grow, with larger “professional” grade aircraft becoming more common as delivery and other applications develop. The FAA differentiates between “consumer” grade commercial drones – average unit price about $2500 – and “professional” grade commercial drones, which have an average unit price of $25,000.  While consumer grade drones make up about 95% of the market now, FAA sees that percentage moving to only 85% in 5 years as professional grade drones – and their applications – become more common.  In fact, should drone delivery move forward to scale, the FAA says that the growth in professional grade drones could be “phenomenal.”