It’s become a tradition! For the last two years, Matt Sloane of SkyfireAI gave us his predictions for the drone industry… and he wasn’t wrong. Here’s the 2026 update! Matt’s take on the FCC ruling, the big winners and losers, and what happens as the drone industry enters its “awkward teenage phase.” DRONELIFE does not accept or make payment for guest posts
Drone Industry Predictions for 2026 – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
by Matt Sloane, SkyfireAI co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer
It’s not often in an emerging industry that one can see a particular year as an “inflection point” while it’s happening – that usually comes with hindsight, but in the case of the drone industry, 2025 was a monumental year no matter how you slice it.
Whether you think we took a monumental leap forward, or a gargantuan step backwards, you’re right! 2026 will be defined by the “fallout” or “benefits” of what happened last year, depending on which side you sit.
First, the year in review
We got the Part 108 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, which WILL change the face of the industry forever. It paves the way to true Beyond Visual Line of Sight operations, true autonomy, medical device and consumer package delivery, and a next generation airspace monitoring system.
As I predicted, the outgoing Biden Administration left the NPRM to the next guy, and President Trump acted decisively with executive orders that paved the way for next-level drone operations; as well as counter drone authorities.
The rulemaking was late, but the public comment period that followed its release garnered more than 3,000 submissions.
General sentiment on the rule itself? A whole lotta good stuff, and some stuff that needed to be fixed; but on the whole, it will be a positive force for the industry.
More consolidation happened, as expected, particularly by Ondas Holdings, as they acquired multiple companies in the space, on the way to building a drone industry juggernaut.
The US Army ended up bringing Skydio back into the fold on the Short Range Reconnaissance program, to be offered alongside RedCat’s drones; and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth cleared obstacles on the path to faster, and more streamlined procurement across the Department of War for unmanned systems.
In anticipation of World Cup 2026, Counter-UAS is finally getting its time in the sun, with an executive order, followed by provisions in the NDAA that start delegating mitigation powers to State, Local, Tribal and Territorial partners, and away from just the Department of Justice.
And last, but certainly not least… CHINA! The issue that continues to plague the industry, and dominated every conversation about what’s next for the industry.
Just before Christmas, the Federal Communications Commission did what everyone predicted they would, and added DJI and Autel to the Agency’s Covered List, effectively banning those companies from licensing any new drone models in the US.
They also went a step – nay, a mile – further, and added ALL foreign made drones and components to the Covered List; in a move that had tech journalists, industry watchers and LinkedIn warriors working overtime on Christmas.
While it was just under two weeks ago, we all went into a time warp, and emerged here in 2026, so let’s take a look at what this – and all the rest of it means for the drone industry this year.
Going back to my initial paragraph – whether you think the industry won or lost in 2025, you’re right.
The Part 108 proposed rule making will likely be turned into a final rule sometime in 2026, and will start the clock on truly advanced drone operations being de rigueur in the US. When exactly we’ll see this final rule is anybody’s guess, but it will be monumental when it happens.
It will finally allow big companies and small alike to start planning for this inevitable future, and capitalizing accordingly.
The US Army (and DoW overall) will have aggressive and much more flexible new purchasing authority, and will take the idea of providing technology to the military out of just multi-year, big company programs of record; and allow smaller innovative companies to play.
More consolidation will happen – it’ll have to, to keep up with the pace that will be set in 2026.
Big companies will need more small, agile groups to stay on top of trends, and things will be moving so quickly, it’ll be better to “buy” capability than to “build it.” Ain’t nobody got time for that!
Automation and AI will move from being a “nice to have” to being a “must have,” as operations get more complex, demanding, longer-range, and involving more than one aircraft at a time.
Oh, and we’ll have to do it all without any foreign drones or drone parts… sorta.
There have been at least 3 million articles in the last two weeks about what’s happening with the FCC’s ruling, so I’ll spare you the column-space; but what I will say is this: There are ALOT of people across the industry who are scared. It’s a tough time, even for the “winners” here, who source a lot of their parts from overseas (not just from China), so there will be strife.
In some ways, this will be one of the hardest years the drone industry has seen since it’s inception, because everything will have to change!
Companies will go out of business that rely heavily on Chinese drones; public safety agencies will face equipment droughts, budget gaps and lots of frustrating conversations as they try to figure out what’s next; and everybody will blame Skydio.
But let me offer you some food for thought as you read this, and look towards the year ahead:
The truth of the matter is that this issue LONG predated Skydio. Plenty of companies – both American and foreign – engaged in lobbying and influence campaigns in DC, and of course they did – that’s what you do when you’re trying to build an industry.
Skydio, BRINC, RedCat and Unusual Machines appear to have been the big “winners” out of this whole thing, but I think it’s more nuanced than that.
I think those companies will certainly have some wins because of this ruling that they wouldn’t have had without it; but I also think this move creates a MASSIVE opportunity for the rest of us who are trying to build this industry.
When you are forced to design and build your product against the backdrop of inexpensive Chinese products, it knee-caps your ability to design the product you should be making, and forces you to make the product they’re making.
Does this mean that it’ll all happen without pain – absolutely not. As someone who regularly flies DJI and Autel aircraft; and helps clients who do the same – this could present some new opportunities this year.
We are most certainly entering our “awkward teenage phase” as an industry, and like a family living with an awkward teenager (or pre-teen in my own case), it won’t come without a fight.
But to use a metaphor that maybe only I’ll get as a self-confessed weather geek; we are in an eyewall replacement cycle.
The hurricane is tearing down its own organized structure, and things get a little messy and hard to predict. But the reason hurricanes do this – and the reason our industry desperately needs to do this – is because the whole system is disorganized, and built on a foundation that happened piecemeal over decades. Some of it works, some of it doesn’t.
We’re regrouping, getting rid of the parts that don’t serve us (or our national security); and we’re going to build back stronger.
That’s chaotic for those people living inside the storm, to be sure; but progress doesn’t come without change; and change is often messy.
So buckle up, because a lot of that change is coming, but this industry is building itself into a Category 5 storm. I, for one, am thrilled to be in the hurricane-hunter aircraft watching it all happen.
Matt Sloane is the co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer at SkyfireAI. With over a decade of experience in public safety and drone technology, Matt has helped countless agencies integrate drones into their critical incident response. Prior to Skyfire, he worked as a medical news producer at CNN and served as an EMT. Matt is actively involved in shaping drone regulations and policy and is a licensed pilot.
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